Countries have been urged to set more ambitious emission reduction targets by next year’s climate talks, after pledges made at Cop26 in Glasgow failed to address the measures needed to limit warming to 1.5 ° C by the end of the century.

Many countries have submitted plans for deeper emission reductions, but Climate Action Tracker, which provides independent scientific analysis of governments’ climate actions, estimates that even if implemented, the new targets leave the world on track for an average temperature increase of 2.4 ° C. Kenyan Environment Minister Keriako Tobiko told the summit that major emitters must align their commitments to 1.5 ° C. For Africa, “1.5 ° C is not a statistic – it’s a matter of life and death,” said Tobiko.

But the Glasgow Climate Pact, accepted by nearly 200 nations after 12 days of talks, marks the beginning of the end of coal and fossil fuel subsidies. US climate envoy John Kerry described the $ 2.5 trillion spent on fossil subsidies since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 as “the definition of insanity.” It sets rules for carbon markets and reporting progress on targets, and doubling adaptation funding for developing countries. As expected, money was a defining issue in the talks. Developed countries have yet to deliver on their pledge – made in 2009 – to provide $ 100 billion (£ 74 billion) per year in climate finance to developing countries, even though it is recognized that trillions will eventually be needed. Developed countries were also not prepared to accept funding for countries to deal with the already obvious consequences of climate change.

Chris Stark, Managing Director of the UK Climate Change Committee, welcomed the clear recognition that limiting warming to 1.5 ° C is the overarching goal. The text, he said, was “super clear on the science of this” and the “explicit reference” to the need to cut emissions by 45% this decade.

Progress monitoring

How to judge the progress made towards this objective? One of the big sticking points in Glasgow was about transparency – how countries report their progress with sufficient clarity and reliability. Pete Betts, a former EU climate negotiator, told reporters that the entire climate regime is built on transparency. “If you don’t deliver your target, there are no penalties. The only thing is to name and shame – it’s public pressure [and] having a functioning transparency regime is key to making the whole system work. ‘

Now all countries will have to use the same format to report their greenhouse gas emissions, progress against commitments they have made, as well as contributions they make to climate finance to help developing countries. development to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The private sector will also be in the spotlight, with UN Secretary-General Anthony Guterres announcing that he will set up an expert group to address the “credibility gap” of emissions reductions and net zero targets, by setting clear measurement standards.

Formal negotiations aside, a slew of country and business announcements – from halting deforestation to reorienting private finance towards net zero transition and scaling up clean technology – have signaled a systemic shift in the direction of travel; and a sense that companies are impatient for politics to move faster.

A global pledge to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030 has been signed by 110 countries, but not by India, Russia and the biggest emitter of methane, China. The latter, however, agreed to discuss methane as part of a new cooperation agreement with the United States announced during the second week of the Glasgow talks. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development says the methane target could be more ambitious. He wants to see a 40% reduction by 2030 and 75% by 2050, and a broader focus to include the agriculture and waste sectors.

Coal is no longer king

A puzzling series of coal announcements have seen Poland backtrack to pushing forward its 2049 deadline to end the use of coal, but in what could be a model to help coal-dependent countries move forward. away from fuel, the US, UK, Germany and the EU have announced they will provide $ 8.5 billion to help South Africa speed up the shutdown of its coal-fired power plants and to switch to renewable energies.

Nearly 40 countries and development banks have also signed an agreement to stop funding overseas fossil fuel projects and instead support clean energy, with the caveat “except in limited and clearly defined circumstances” . The statement made no mention of domestic support for fossil fuels, but a smaller group of nations and states led by Denmark and Costa Rica announced they would move beyond oil and gas. Its top eight members have said they will end any new concessions, licenses or lease cycles for oil and gas production and exploration and set a date aligned with the Paris Agreement to end production and to exploration in their jurisdictions. Neither the UK nor the major oil and gas producers have signed up.

At Cop26, however, the UK launched a series of ‘Glasgow breakthroughs’ aimed at making cleantech the most affordable and attractive options in emitting sectors across the world by 2030. Progress would be achieved through policy changes, a shared R&D effort, public investment and the mobilization of private finance, especially in developing countries. Clean energy, green steel, zero emission vehicles, renewable and low carbon hydrogen and “climate resilient” agriculture are the first goals to which more than 40 countries have committed. A plethora of announcements from businesses and philanthropists followed. Among them, a coalition of “pioneers” of 25 global companies have made purchasing commitments to help advance technologies that will decarbonize steel, shipping, aviation and transportation. All that remains is to deliver.