IGC expects 40 million tonnes drop in global cereal production
LONDON, ENGLAND – Total cereal production is expected to fall by 40 million tonnes to 2.251 billion in 2022-23, reflecting lower harvests of wheat, maize (maize) and sorghum, the International Grains Council said ( IGC) when convening its 56th IGC Council. June 6 session.
The meeting was chaired by Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, Trade Representative of Ukraine.
Consumption is only slightly lower, so global ending stocks are expected to contract, the IGC said. World trade is expected to fall 3% to 404 million tonnes, reflecting an anticipated drop in corn and barley volumes.
Global soybean production, however, is expected to rebound, rising 11% year-on-year to a peak of 378 million tonnes. Trading volumes are expected to increase by 8% on larger deliveries to Asian markets in particular, the IGC said.
Linked to gains in Asia, global rice production rose 1% to a new high. Global pulse import demand is expected to contract by 2% in 2022 as larger shipments to the Far East are expected to be offset by smaller shipments elsewhere, including to the EU, Africa and the Americas .
During the session, the Secretariat presented its updated global supply and demand balances for grain-based ethanol, aimed at improving the IGC’s understanding of biofuels markets and facilitating the forecasting of short-term trends. term of the industrial use of cereals. This update was followed by discussions from members on recent policy developments related to biofuels.
Given the current market situation, members discussed the latest trade policy developments. The Secretariat also presented its new database on national trade-related and other policy developments. To enhance market transparency, the database applies the same framework that has been developed by international organizations, namely WTO and UNCTAD.
The Council agreed on a new work program for 2022-2023, noting that the Secretariat would continue to focus on its main economic activities in relation to the challenges of the grain market. Projects for the coming year would include:
- Explore a reference scenario for the production of biofuels for the next five years;
- Develop special webinars on sustainability and trade for specific sectors (cereals, rice, oilseeds and pulses);
- Expand its work on pulses market information, including the development of supply and demand balance sheets for dry beans and fava beans, as well as the provision of a wider range of price information FOB; and
- Develop analysis of global sunflower seed supply and demand, as well as market monitoring of sunflower products.
The council has appointed Dr. Florence Kaibi, Minister Counselor and Attaché for Agriculture, Kenyan Embassy in Belgium, Luxembourg and Mission to the EU, Brussels as Chairperson for 2022-23. Cynthia Guven, Agricultural Adviser for the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland, Foreign Agricultural Service, US Department of Agriculture has been named Vice President for 2022-2023.
The Council welcomed the participation of observers from Brazil, the Separate Customs Territory of Taipei (Chinese), FAO-AMIS and IGTC.
The 31st IGC Grains Conference, “Building Resilience to Global Market Vulnerabilities,” will be held in person and virtually on June 7-8, 2 and will feature 13 live Q&A sessions.
Among the speakers, MP Victoria Prentis, Minister of State (Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food) as well as Kashka, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Ukraine, will take part in the discussion on the food security and trade.
The IGC Grains conference is part of the fourth London Grains Week organized by AHDB, GAFTA, IGC and IGTC to bring together key operators in the grains value chain to discuss the latest business challenges and opportunities.