War to reduce wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia by 12%
The Russian invasion of Ukraine will reduce the countries’ wheat exports by a total of 12%, the Agriculture Ministry said on Wednesday in an initial assessment of the short-term impact of the war. Countries from Europe to Asia and Africa will import slightly less wheat in the coming months in the face of rising prices and reduced supplies from the Black Sea region, he said. he declares.
Russia and Ukraine are generally among the largest wheat exporting countries. USDA analysts said exports from the two countries would fall to a combined 52 million tonnes this marketing year, down 7 million tonnes from their pre-invasion estimate. The reduction would be partially offset by Australia and India, which have ample reserves to sell. U.S. wheat sales were weaker than expected and would be nearly a fifth lower than last year, the USDA said.
“Exports from Ukraine are reduced by 4.0 million tons to 20.0 million, as the conflict in this country is expected to disrupt exports from the Black Sea region,” says USDA’s WASDE monthly report . “Russia’s exports are reduced by 3.0 million tons to 32.0 million tons, as shipping is expected to be limited by the conflict and the imposition of economic sanctions.”
The impact would be felt in countries including Turkey, Egypt, Afghanistan, Algeria, Kenya, Pakistan, Tanzania, Yemen and EU members, according to the report. USDA.
Abundant rainfall throughout the growing season propelled the Australian wheat crop to a record 36.3 million tonnes. Helped by competitive prices, the bumper harvest will see Australia export 27.5 million tonnes of wheat, its highest total on record, the USDA said. “India’s strong export pace is expected to continue due to its ample stocks and rising world prices.”
The USDA raised its forecast for wheat exports from Australia by 2 million tonnes and India by 1.5 million tonnes from last month.
Still-high spot and futures price expectations point to a season average price of $7.50 a bushel, the highest in nine years, for the 2021 U.S. wheat crop, currently on the market. A “significant majority” of the crop has already been sold, the USDA said.